A look at the Iran NIE and its impact

The NIE report
http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/12/03/iran.nie.pdf
"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons
program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is
keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."
Wall Street Journal article
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119682320187314033.html
"As recently as 2005, the consensus estimate... was that 'Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons...despite...international pressure.' This was a 'high confidence' judgment. The new NIE says Iran abandoned its nuclear program in 2003 'in response to increasing international scrutiny.' This too is a 'high confidence' conclusion
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Will the NIE report on Iran change the debate on international action against Iran?
Israel
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=/ForeignBureaus/archive/200712/INT20071204c.html
"National Infrastructure Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said that Israel must 'continue to act in every way against the Iranian nuclear threat.' Israel is working under the premise that Iran is still pursuing nuclear weapons, said Ben-Eliezer, a former Israeli defense minister. 'This is exactly one of the issues over which the state of Israel must take no risk,' he said in a radio interview."
Gulf states (Sunni neighbors such as Saudi Arabia)
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=/ForeignBureaus/archive/200712/INT20071204a.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119682417350614074.html
"For the first time ever, leaders of the Arab Gulf states invited Iran to attend a summit in Doha, Qatar, on Monday, but President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did little to reassure them that his country's nuclear program is not a threat to the region."
"What particularly concerns Gulf Arabs is the possibility that Iran could go nuclear -- a concern unlikely to be erased by the ambiguous findings of the new NIE. ...As the new NIE notes, 'Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.' ...That thought fills Sunni Arabs with dread. 'If we accept Iran as a nuclear power that is like accepting Hitler in 1933-34,' warned one senior Arab official, using the kind of analogy that back in Washington would get him dismissed as a neocon warmonger."
EU
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/11/30/iran.europe/index.html?iref=newssearch
"The European Union's foreign policy chief said Friday he was 'disappointed' by the latest talks with Iran over the nation's nuclear program, a failure that could result in more sanctions for the Middle Eastern nation."
Domestically
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200712/NAT20071204b.html
"Last year, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton accused President Bush of "downplaying" the threat of a nuclear Iran. "[W]e we must move as quickly as feasible for sanctions in the United Nations," Clinton said in a January 2006 speech at Princeton University. On Monday, Clinton's campaign said the new intelligence assessment on Iran validates her push for diplomacy."
An interesting opinion on the importance of 2003 "international pressure" in Iranian nuclear planning
http://acorn.nationalinterest.in/2007/12/04/iran-halted-in-weapons-program-in-2003-why-2003/
Was it disruption of AQ Khan's proliferation network or the "Iraq effect".
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Background
An overview
http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/1819.html

The AQ Khan connection
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/khan-iran.htm
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/south/12/23/pakistan.nuclear/

What happened in 2003 - IAEA violations and Khan's network uncovered
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/nuke2003.htm

What happened in 2005 - Transition to Ahmadinejad
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/nuke2005.htm
What happened in 2006 - UN vs Iran
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/nuke2006.htm

Intent and Israel
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/nuke2.htm